User blog:Paul.rea/Teen Wolf: How are the Ratings?

Fans have become wise to the ways of television networks.

If we like a show, chances are they’ll cancel it. A number of folks on the Teen Wolf Wiki have begun to wonder if Teen Wolf might be in trouble. So far MTV hasn’t guaranteed a third season and so clever folks have been watching the ratings in hopes that those numbers will boost the chances of further adventures in Beacon Hills.

Here are the Ratings Estimates so far:

NOTE: These are combined east/west coast 10pm + Same Day + DVR views meaning everyone who watched the show within the first 24 hours.

Omega (Sunday Night) drew 2.109 million viewers

Shape Shifted drew 1.746 million viewers

Ice Pick drew 1.761 million viewers

Abomination drew 1.693 million viewers

Venomous drew 1.652 million viewers

Frenemy drew 1.647 million viewers

A couple of notes about these numbers:

They are estimates based on the small percentage of people that report their viewing the very next day the final numbers always go up but those revised numbers aren’t as easy to find.

The current system of counting eyeballs watching television is outdated. They use 1950s tech and people’s faulty memories to come up with these numbers.

Overall, these numbers aren’t bad. They rank in about the middle of what’s expected for a basic cable drama aimed at tweens and teens. However, as you can see, the numbers are slipping which ain’t good. Of course, ratings are only part of the equation when it comes to keeping a show on the air. If ratings of a million and a half people meant instant cancellation then much of the CW’s line up would be toast since they can’t even draw half that on a good night.

There is a science to this stuff that mostly centers around money but also includes viewers like us that love the show.

Here's my version of the equation for cancellation:

PoP - (R + CR) - MFB = X

That's Price of Production or the cost of making the show

Minus

Ratings and Commercial Revenue or how many eyeballs and how much money they're worth to advertisers.

Minus

Media and Fan Buzz, which is measured by good critical reviews and the level of excitement and interest generated by fans.

Equals X

As long as X is a positive number for the network then the show will survive.

A great example of this is Breaking Bad over on AMC. Typically, viewers number right around 1.7 million per episode. That’s a dog compared to the network’s other shows like Walking Dead which often draws 7 million. That network also keeps churning out episodes of Mad Men which hit’s 2.5 million on a good night. These shows survive because they are “critically acclaimed”. They make the cover of magazines and reside permanently on critics “Best of” lists. They also appeal to viewers with lots of disposable income. That means their viewers are more attractive to certain advertisers.

So what’s the value of X for Teen Wolf? It’s tough to know for sure.

PoP -

We don’t know how much each episode costs. They’re doing it in Atlanta which is cheaper than doing it in LA but we don’t have actual numbers.

R+CR -

We know the ratings, which are decent. We know the numbers skew younger which is good since that’s MTV’s target.

As for commercial revenue: you’ve seen the Scott and Stiles Toyota commercials and the AT&T phones and Samsung Tablets and Toyota vehicles with Entune integrated into the plots of the episodes? All this branding is a good thing. It shows that the producers are willing to work with advertisers to support the cost of the series. It shows advertisers believe that the show is viewed by their target customers and want to be part of something cool.

MFB 

The critics that have reviewed it are pleasantly surprised by the quality of the show. Most of the media mentions have been in genre publications. In SciFi/Supernatural/Teen Heartthrob media circles we get great mentions and reviews but the show also has much love over at Entertainment Weekly and TV Guide so the mainstream is on board as well. That’s a good thing.

Of course, the fan base is insane. 1.6 million “Likes” on facebook is tremendous (Vampire Diaries has 12 million but they’ve been at it longer) the Teen Wolf Tumblr sites and Twitter follows are equally high.

Bottom Line 

Does all this add up to Season 3? That's up to MTV and the producers but we still have some influence over their decisions.

We’ve all heard about fans organizing to save a show after it’s been cancelled but that’s usually too little too late. Fans have to let the network and it’s advertisers know every day that the show is worth keeping.

It’s interesting that the number of “Likes” on Facebook is so close to the average ratings per episode. So, I guess, if everyone that “Likes” the show actually watches the show the ratings will remain solid.

Which brings me to what we as viewers can do to make sure MTV knows we’re watching even if the ratings don’t show it.

Watch the show live when it airs at 10pm Mondays

Tweet and Facebook about the show before, during and after every episode

“Like” the Teen Wolf Facebook page

Get your social media friends engaged by linking to the MTV Teen Wolf site’s videos and other features

Keep filing up Tumblr and Pinterest with images and notes from the show

Use your imagination and figure out new ways to let MTV know that the show is worth keeping and let us all know in the comments section.